At the beginning of 2008 I made some predictions on another of my blogs which is no longer online about where I thought the markets were going.
The predictions I made are as follows with my comments now about each prediction in bold/italics:
- Oil is going UP… this has been my view for a long time now, and don’t see it stopping until there is a viable alternative fuel for cars.
YUP… until it plunged - Soaring oil prices will increase the demand for alternative energy, expect some fairly major developments. Though nothing to suddenly fix the worlds problems.
Not such a good call - The US is going to have more hard times this year, subprime was just the trigger (and it is far from over yet) that will see more pain for the whole US economy.
Hey this was a great call! I’m pretty sure I meant for the USD to be lower though luckily didn’t put that in writing
- With the US going down Gold is going UP.
Good call… sort of… it fell also and is about even now.
- US interest rates will keep falling.
Good call - Commodities in general will continue going up.
Happened… sort of… until they plunged - My bravest prediction is that the AUDUSD is going to get to parity with the USD.
Not a bad call, got damn close. - Expect strength in the EUR, JPY, CAD.
EUR: Bad Call, JPY Great Call, CAD Bad Call - Expect weakness in the GBP (particularly against the EUR), whether the EUR can maintain the strength for the whole year will be interesting.
Good Call - I see less political conflict for the year ahead. In the US elections the Americans will finally fix the mistake they made 4 years ago and the republicans will get their asses handed to them. Which will be a good thing for America and the world.
That was a good call
Overall, I think I actually didn’t do too badly… I totally didn’t see the plunge in currencies and commodities and the massive climb in USD.
I will post another post soonish with my predictions for 2009, it should be an interesting year!