Last year I was pretty confident in my predictions, this year my theme is pretty flat.
- The US will hurt, a recovery probably won’t happen in 2009, certainly not in the first half of the year,
- The UK will hurt as well.
- Some oil rich countries will hurt.
- I’m expecting a major plunge in the USD, though I’m still uncertain as to whether it will happen in 2009 or 2010.
- Strength in EUR.
- Weakness in GBP (relative to EUR).
- Some strength in AUD.
- Some small recoveries in Commodities.
- Do I think we’ve seen the end of this financial meltdown? not a chance. More coverups and failures in 2009.
- I’m expecting major problems in markets which have thus far managed to get away unscathed… Credit Card debt is an obvious though by no means the only one.
- The IMF will be busy saving countries.
- Caution will be a key theme of 2009.
I’m aware that they are pretty weak positions that I’m taking… a lot of fence sitting…. I think that will be most peoples position for most of 2009 hence no strong opinions.