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Blog Archives » March 2006Lack of UpdatesI'd like to start this post off by apologising for the complete lack of updates for the last couple of weeks. I got married and had a nice honeymoon so I've been a little pre-occupied. Once I've caught up on everything that has happened I'll be sure to find something interesting (wishful thinking) to write a post about permalink - 14th March 2006YipeeeI'm amazed, after going away on honeymoon for a couple of weeks I have come back and opened some trades, I'm up by over 130 pips! almost enough to make back the stupid losses that I made a little while back :D Here's a daily chart showing my current position on the CAD/JPY which is up by 100 pips, I had some others that took the profit as well so I'm quite happy :D
How did I do it? I used the CCI indicator... I've been very happy with CCI since I started using it, so much so that I'm starting to think that maybe it's time for me to do some research into some of the other indicators... and see if they can give me as good results. Next on the list is RSI (or Relative Strength Index), I've had the barebones of the research done, though I need to finish it off and do some back testing and comparisons before I publish it. Are stocks a better idea than currencies?In my research for the info I'm going to write about RSI (Relative Strength Index), I've been reading around a quite a bit. I came across a site called barchart.com which is a pretty useful site if you are trading in stocks. It has a really cool feature which I wish was available for foreign currencies (if only I could find a good free data feed.....), basically they run a few technical analysis studies on the thousands and thousands of stocks, based on the results of the studies they assign buy, sell and hold ratings and give an overall rating. As you might have guessed by the title of this post, I'm wondering if trading on the stockmarket might be a better place for a technical analyst to ply their trade than by trading currencies on the foreign exchange market. Not because foreign exchange is less suited to technical analysis, rather because there are so many more stocks which can be sifted through for the perfect trade which is almost guaranteed to make money. Where with currencies there really isn't a whole lot of them to choose from, though they sure are more volatile than the average stock from what I've been able to see. Do these actually make sense to the rest of the world?Let me start this post by stating that I am a beginner, and I'm well and truly aware that I don't know a lot. Hopefully given enough time that can change :-D Forex Project posted about some charts (click here to see some more great pieces of line art) on the fibo-group website so I went to have a look and the first thing I thought of was...
I'm sure that experienced technical analysts can probably decipher it, though for now I'm just going to have to content myself with learning all there is to know about CCI, RSI and the other more basic indicators. New Research: Relative Strength IndexJust a quick post to announce that I've just published some new research I've done on the Relative Strength Index into the technical analysis section. It's actually pretty useful so I'd recommend you check it out, I'm going to be trying to use it as much as possible in the future to avoid making stupid trades. Absolutely Amazing, it really really works!!!I opened a trade on the AUD/JPY last night when I finished writing my RSI article based on the info that I had from RSI. It worked well overnight and so this morning I opened 11 more trades across a whole lot of currencies, a few hours later my profitable trades are up by 223 pips, and I have only 54 pips in negative trades at the moment (though they should also swing). If all goes well and they all reach their take profit levels I should get up by around 2000pips!!!!! Now for the important bit... how did I do it? I looked at the daily charts with CCI (14 periods) and RSI (14 periods) as indicators, when I found a currency that had both RSI and CCI showing a trade should be made I opened a position. I paid slightly more attention to RSI and just used CCI as a verification that it was more or less a suitable time. Needless to say, I'm absolutely amazed at how successful it has been thus far. Update: After about 24 hours I'm up 543 pips, I closed down a couple of positions EUR/CHF and USD/CAD which were both down by around 40 pips, I think I jumped the gun a little with them so I decided to take the pain now rather than holding onto the positions. One thing I noticed that might have been an indicator to avoid with the EUR/CHF was that it was on a pretty long slow up trend and that the RSI had mostly been somewhere above 50 since back in January. I'll keep my eye on it to see how it progresses. I should disclose that 195 pips of that profit is on the EUR/SEK which I don't think converts into much $ in my unrealised P&L so I'm probably thinking I'm doing better than I really am. FOREX IdiotI laughed when I checked my log files today, someone from Malaysia found me searching for exactly what I am! A FOREX Idiot! permalink - 25th March 2006What a quick way to lose money!With my success the other day in using the RSI and CCI to correctly pick a good time to open a position I managed to get my unrealised profits up to $5000 (that's with 20:1 leverage), I went to negative within a matter of hours, mainly due to having taken a position on the EUR/AUD and then taken a second when it spiked. I should have cashed out when I was over 100 pips up on both of those positions, though instead I was greedy and held onto them... now one is 125pips in the negative :( Here's a daily chart of my stupidity with the EUR/AUD.
I've moved my take profit to a level where I should almost break even if it drops back down to todays low. Update: After looking at it a bit more, I've decided that I'm going to hold it and wait for the big drop since RSI is indicating that the euro is overbought. I think my mistake was an error in timing, I should have waited for the price and RSI to begin dropping before opening my short position. DAMN I SUCKI'm beginning to realise that I seriously suck at this forex trading stuff. After picking some absolute rippers of trades and making some serious profit very quickly I completely messed it up and went backwards like you wouldn't believe. So badly that I'm too ashamed to make it public how I managed to mess up so stupidly! I've decided that I'm going to be a wimp and reset my account (though I set it to be $10,000 instead of the 100k that it was previously) to be back where I started from, lets see if I can be disciplined from here onwards and get it going UPWARDS. Lessons to be learnt, DO NOT BE GREEDY, TAKE THE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN. permalink - 29th March 2006Archives» Nov 2006 » Oct 2006 » Sep 2006 » Jul 2006 » Jun 2006 » May 2006 » Apr 2006 » Mar 2006 » Feb 2006 » Jan 2006 » Dec 2005 |
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