Will my long term strategy work?

I opened a position a few days ago on the USD/SGD as I was anticipating a breakout, thus far it hasn't happened though I'm still holding on as I think the signs are still showing that it should breakout sometime soon and I might actually be on it from the beginning.

Here is the current daily chart of the USD/SGD which shows where I opened my position and the fact that I'm down by around 30 pips.

I opened my position there because I saw that there appeared to be resistance and it was near a one year low (I've set my stop loss at that level). The bollinger bands are quite compressed (they looked to be compressing even more when I opened my position) which would tend to indicate a big move is in the works, since we're almost at the 1 year low I'm predicting that it will be a breakout rather than a breakdown. I've set my take profit at the Fibonacci retracement 50% line, there was a small resistance line on the way down at that point so I've set it there (a bit over 300pips, so if it comes off I'll be happy).

I will let you know if my long term strategy pays off :) 

In other news: I went back and had a read of the FOREX project blog to see how he is going and if I could learn anything, I learnt that he is making nearly all profitable trades! He's making very few of them, though who cares if they are all profitable!

Related

1. I'm going to close it early
2. How long should I wait?
3. Money Management
4. Finished reading the candlestick book
5. Good System to Profiting?

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